How will the US-China trade war end?

One of China's biggest holidays, Section 5.1, Labor Day holiday, began. However, it seems that when the holiday season comes, Is it my own feeling?

China's economic downturn is clear, and the Chinese government is doing its utmost to strengthen the economy. As a result, the first quarter GDP was maintained at 6.4%. The main content of this was a large-scale infrastructure investment by the government of 300 trillion won, and the local governments had to issue a huge amount of Taekwondo. Although it is for their own garden, it is not easy to see a government that does something like this. This is why the Chinese government is the most important factor in trusting China's market and economy.

The 10th US-China trade talks in Beijing this week are likely to be the final talks. Everyone is watching the results of the talks. Germany, which is visiting Beijing, and Malaysian ministers, both expressed hope that the US-China trade war has had a negative impact on the global economy. The German economy minister urged Ryohei to make immediate progress in negotiations on the bilateral trade talks between the US and China, saying that the US-China trade has a negative impact on not only Germany but the entire European economy. The Minister of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia, Darryl Ray King, expressed the concern that the two major powers in the Middle East should have a sense of responsibility for the country of Myra all over the world.

On April 26, President Trump said that the US-China trade negotiations are going very well. Trump 's remarks sparked optimism that the New York Times would see US – China trade talks and the visit of the US to the US in May and June. The US Treasury Secretary, on April 29, said he would probably end the negotiations in the next two weeks of negotiations. The Hong Kong South Post reported that in June, the US Secretary of State, Shi Jingping, could sign the bill in the negotiations. There is also a view that this negotiation will be finalized in the next negotiation.

However, it is rumored that there has been a lot of conflict before China's internal trade and that consensus has been formed on some things that can not be withdrawn from China any longer. One comment on the one-on-one conversation at the Kohongbong meeting was the announcement of the protection of intellectual property rights, the prohibition of forced transfer of technology, the restriction of subsidies, the policy of not defeating the renminbi, Regardless of the needs of the United States, it is clear that China has taken the form that it has decided, and in fact, it has fulfilled the American requirements. What, then, can China, which has accepted most of these American demands, come to be the eldest son?

Once in China, Trump and I do not negotiate again seems to have established a policy. As for China, which emphasizes face-to-face, this Trump has been subjected to all kinds of insults. However, there is no sign of reflection on how they acted in third countries such as Korea. China has seen the tastes of the oppressed opponent pressing with his strength. And with that reaction, China seems to focus on growing its strength.

If the negotiations break down, then China will give up negotiations and look for other ways, which is not unlikely. Your opponent is Trump. At the end, it is a lot of people putting the dumb gun again, so the final letter of the negotiation must be decided until the jinjinping will move. What happens if the negotiations fail?

First of all, the US 's China tariffs will be maintained, and over time, the manufacturing base will deviate. Foreign companies already think that the risks are greater than the merits of Chinese manufacturing. Especially, it is the high-tech enterprises that the Chinese government attaches. Japanese companies first started moving their production base to Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, followed by Taiwanese companies. And, of course, American companies started China.

Second, as the source of China 's high – technology introduction will be limited, this will be a close relationship with Russia and other countries, and the country will be in a position to make every effort to develop technology. On the other hand, China's internal manpower and internal research and development become important because it will be difficult to proceed with the US-led conflict. In that sense, it is understandable that China must protect Huawei. However, technological advances at the same rate as in the past are unlikely to take place, and there is a possibility of gradually losing technology competitiveness.

Therefore, China will have no choice but to actively promote its technological manpower overseas. You need to go out and bring your skills and experience locally. If the United States is difficult, it should go to Europe such as Germany. However, the centripetal force of the Communist Party weakens in order to enter such advanced countries. It is also questionable whether Chinese companies can develop enough businesses to go to work in Europe.

Even if we look deeply, the position of China after the breakdown of the Mongolian trade negotiations does not have a problem. It will be difficult to maintain the same rate of economic development as before, and China's decline in factories will make China's economy more difficult. The expectation level of people has been raised as much as possible, and social integration conflict factors such as the difference in wealth have been increasing. So, if you do not mind, you have to negotiate with the United States.

What changes will come when negotiations are concluded? It will be difficult to pursue a policy that will once again lead to one-on-one, Chinese-Mong, There can be no reflection and evaluation. And it is difficult for Si Jinping to get out of that responsibility. Already the voice of the complaints inside the Communist Party is puzzling like this.

There are no forces other than the Kang Tae-min faction that have been known to challenge the provincial seats. It is important to take over the legacy of Jang Taek-min in the faction of President Gang Tae-min. If he challenges the Jing Jinping annotation, the Chinese state will be tumbled. Human beings are already being discussed in literary media.

If the opposition is in power, pro-capital, pro-business, and pro-private policies are expected to evolve. And the color of the Communist Party is likely to be diversified from red to rainbow colors. In this case, it is possible that the US will reach for help. However, these forces are the main targets of the anti – corruption movement that has been carried out by the people of Sijingpin. It is doubtful how China can solve the contradiction of policy, ideology and system in China. Perhaps a great deal of pain will accompany. And above all, the military will shake. Therefore, the scenario of the opposition is not easy.

So, it is most likely that the system will continue. However, the authority of the commentator of Sijing will be hurt and the successor appointment needs to be done quickly. This successor is likely to be the chief supreme leader of China in decades, since he will serve as proxy until the end of his term and will fill a ten – year term from his inauguration. Most of the current political committee members are not likely to be next to age. The next comment should come out of the actual 50s or early 60s, but I can not see the person who has the ability and the foundation to do it. There is also the possibility of a power struggle.

Eventually, when the US-China trade agreement ends, the United States will return to normal, but China must seek stability in a whirlwind. Perhaps it is not possible to advance into large-scale outside such as Chinese dream or one-on-one because of stabilizing internal stability for a considerable period. There are scenarios such as the use of military force against Taiwan in order to stabilize the internal in the opposite view. It is a scenario that is mainly concerned with the arts and crafts, but it is becoming a big issue with the Taiwanese general election in 2020. But I do not think the current China will be able to handle these risks as the US will respond immediately.

In the end, the US-China trade talks are a complete US victory. And the victory of the United States had already been decided before it began. This game was a game of what China is all about. China has to face a minimum face, showing all that it has to give up and succumb to America all over the world. I just do not see how China can save face. There is a line that China can not make concessions, but if there is a way to build up the face, it will be able to end smoothly. US concessions on Huawei and Mangwang could be one way.

Related posts: https://brunch.co.kr/@chulrhee/33

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