Tensions in the US and Iran, the emergence of new stock markets

History is like a repetition, a similar situation happens like a déjà vu. It is the atmosphere that the US can war with Iran amid the rising tension in the Middle East. Like the Iraq war in the past 16 years ago. Of course history is not going to be repeated, but it is necessary to look back at post-war stock markets and financial market conditions during the 2003 Iraq war. This is also a big burden on the stock market as a negative …


ㅇ Trump tweet "is the last day of Iran officially if you want war!"

The Middle East is really complicated. There is no day to be quiet in the interests of the same Muslim countries. Tensions in the Middle East began to rise as Iran, which supports the Huthi rebels, was identified as the backdrop of terrorist attacks on Yemen 's al – Fighters against the US' s ally Saudi oil facilities. The word "war in the Middle East" came to the fore as a rocket attack near the US Embassy in Baghdad.

Trump's remarks were made by the media that the 120,000 US troops were put in. But Saudi Arabia and Iran are pouring their hard-earned comments on "I do not want to fight, but I will not avoid it." I left.

President Trump said, "If Iran wants to fight, it will be officially the end of Iran. Do not intimidate the United States!"

[President Trump left a strong warning tweet about Iran. Reference: Trump tweeter]

The growing tensions in the Middle East have increased the potential for oil prices to rise as potential negative factors for the stock market. In the meantime, the stock market before and after the Iraqi war in the spring of 2003 passed away.

ㅇ March 2003 Iraqi War: Forehead 2001, 911 Tension since the formation of tension

The atmosphere of the war in Iraq in 2003 began just after the 9/11 attacks of Al Qaeda in 2001, a year and a half ago. Shortly after 9/11, the United States will begin a war against Afghanistan 's Taliban regime, which sponsored Osama bin Laden and Al Qeda. A month or so later, news is emerging that the United States will have a war with Iraq. It was the atmosphere that the war on terrorism was waged from Afghanistan to Iraq.

However, there was no immediate war because it was the Bush administration that was unable to form two fronts at that time.

However, hardliners in the United States continued to insist on the war in Iraq, and around the summer of 2002, the war in Iraq was becoming a reality and counting down. Oil prices have started to decline with the tension, and the US and Korean stock markets are accelerating.

[Korea and the US stock market flow from September 11, 2001 to Iraq in 2003]

The US stock market and the Korean stock market shortly after the collapse of the IT bubble erupted in the spring of 2002 as the Federal Reserve faced a sharp cut in the base rate immediately after 9/11. In Korea, after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in 2001, the stock index rallied 100% in the 2002 World Cup boom by the spring of 2002. Since then, the war atmosphere of Iraq has increased, The financial market and the stock market will sharply shrink as the atmosphere of "

At the same time, the US and the S & P500 index fell sharply by 23% in 2002 due to the rising atmosphere of the war in Iraq.

ㅇ War and Stock Market: An ironic dilemma.

[Dilemma in war and stock market … Photo: pixabay]

The battlefield, the country that became the scene, is a terrible reality itself. On the other hand, regions that have nothing to do with the battlefield will benefit from the financial liquidity created by the war.

(※ A typical example of beneficiary is Japan during the Korean War of the 1950s.)

On March 20, 2003, just before the outbreak of the Iraq war, the financial market atmosphere was very dark.

Concerns over oil price hikes and concerns over export disruptions in the Middle East and the possibility of inflationary pressures in the wake of the global financial crisis have heightened concerns. In fact, in the spring of 2003, participants in the Korean stock market sharply depressed investor sentiment in the 500p stock index.

However, global stock markets have started to make an upward trend since the Iraq War actually took place on March 20, 2003. It was interpreted to mean the disappearance of materials, uncertainty and relieving the tension, but from that point, it became a signal of an upward trend for five years until 2007.

After the IT bubble burst in 2000, the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark interest rate from the 6% level to the 1% level in the 2001 terrorist attacks in 2001, began to raise interest rates only in summer 2004, a year after the outbreak of the war, It was.

As a result, the liquidity that has been abruptly released has caused the global real estate and stock market bubble to be created.

It is an ironic dilemma of war created by the war.


Iran war risk: Short-term negative is right …

When we think about the present time from the present point of view in March, 2003

You might think, "It's not about war risk …" but at that time, the crowd's mind was as cold as it is now. Think about it. Like last year, the stock index did not fall 20%, but it fell -50%.

The stock market hates uncertainty, so if the uncertainty persists, it will be bad news for the stock market. And oil prices will wiggle and put pressure on the economy. It is true that it is a bad thing with war risks and uncertainties.

However, it is necessary to think carefully about the trends of war and stock market in all past history. (※ Immediately after the first World War, after the Second World War, after the United States, after the Korean War, etc.)

On the other hand, no war should ever occur on the Korean peninsula. In the end, because the Japanese right wing wants to revive the Japanese economy by wanting …

Monday, May 20, 2019, it was a difficult topic to conclude Stock Market Talk today.

lovefund Lee Sung Soo (representative of Uni Investment Co., CIIA charterHolder)

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